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Scenarios - modelling the future

Scenarios are used to assess potential effects of alternative decisions or outcomes. In PREHAB, we explored the potentials of scenario analyses to predict the ecological consequences of different managerial options involving human pressures. This part of the web resource demonstrates how scenario modelling can be used as a tool in the planning process.

Two management scenarios - two approaches
Two main approaches for scenario-based analyses of the effects of human pressures on biodiversity have been tested in PREHAB. The first explores the effects of mitigating eutrophication. Here, we incorporated the pressure variable in the modelling process, together with its future development as called for by the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The second approach investigates the effects of shoreline construction. It involves spatial overlay analyses between the predicted distribution of fish habitats and the pressure variable (construction) together with historical development rates.

Find out more in the menu on the left!


PREHAB conclusions

Predictive modelling in combination with scenario analyses is a powerful tool for exploring the effects of management options.


Management scenarios

Two scenarios related to the ecological effects of human pressures were explored in PREHAB: Eutrophication and shoreline construction. Both pressures have a vast impact on species and habitats in Baltic Sea coastal waters. The shoreline construction scenario is based on historical development, while the eutrophication scenario assesses potential ecological effects of eutrophication mitigation in accordance with the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP).

Use the links on the left for more information on the scenario work!

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