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Scenario modeling - why?

  • Definition
  • Why use scenarios?
  • Possibilities and limitations

 

Basic concept and ideas, get everybody on the same page

Start with description "Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes" (wikipedia). Appropriate definition? Compare "forecasting"

Entertaining idea of multiple futures rather than betting on one outcome, heavily dependent on (quantification of) uncertainty estimates

As with all simplifications distortions of reality are introduced. "Scenario planning is just one component of a more complete management system."

 



Data needs

Methods for scenarios modeling

Economical valuation

 


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