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Estimating development rates

Since around the mid 1900’s there has been an increased recreational use of the archipelago areas and accompanying development. By using historical data in the form of aerial photographs from the 1960´s, 1980´s and late 1990´s, PREHAB calculated the rate at which the shoreline has been constructed in five study areas in the Stockholm archipelago.

Our analyses show that, on average, the annual rate of shoreline construction increased with 80 percent during 1986-1999 compared to the earlier period 1960-1986. Over the entire time period (1960-1999) there was an almost five-fold increase in constructed shoreline. The amount of shoreline with a clear to heavy construction (index-classes 3 to 5) had on average increased from 3.6 percent in the 1960’s to 13 percent in 1999 (black line in figure below). In the most heavily constructed area the amount had increased from 5.1 percent to 25 percent (red line in figure below).

The amount of shoreline with a clear to heavy construction (class 3-5) has increased in five subareas of Stockholm archipelago. Black line shows the average rate of construction in all study areas, while red line shows the rate in the most heavily constructed area.

By utilizing the spatial and temporal differences in the amount of constructed shoreline and the different development rates for the two time periods, we created different scenarios for future development. In this web resource we have focused on average and maximum rates of construction in the different areas, for the period 1986-1999.

ClassFrequency (constructions)
Index of construction
10
21-2
33-4
45-7
5> 8

The index of construction is based on the number of jetties, quays and marinas recorded along the shoreline, as well as near-shore houses. Frequency is number of constructed objects within 100 m search radius. Classes 3-5 are considered as constructed to such an extent that they have the potential to affect fish habitats.

New methods faciliate overview

Today, modern remote sensing techniques have allowed national inventories to estimate the current shoreline development status. This type of overview, which has previously been difficult to obtain, has strong management potential when used in combination with spatial distribution modelling and scenario analyses.

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